Wednesday, September 21, 2016

College Football - Week 4

Great games this week means hard picks.

Currently 25-9(5-5 ATS) in the SEC and 16-3(11-6-2 ATS) top 25:

#1 Alabama big over Kent State (55-3)

#17 Arkansas at #10 Texas A&M: Which team will discover its offense first? Both are winning with defense and the winner has the inside track to challenging Bama for the West. Expect a hard fought game but I think Arkansas ability to run will make the difference. Ark 24-21

#12 Georgia at #23 Mississippi: Ole Miss led by 21+ against FSU and Alabama, both losses (first time in over 10 years a team did that) and seem not to want to play in the second half. Last week they showed life and could have easily won that game with a couple of different calls. Georgia needed a 4th down touchdown to beat Missouri. Last year that would be damning, but not so sure this year as Missouri has improved. It's the 2 point win versus Nichols (?!?) and THEN needing the 4th down play versus Mizzou that worries you. I think the Rebels finally do something in the 2nd half and win this one going away. Miss 34 - Geo 25

#19 Florida at #14 Tennessee: This year or none. Florida has beat UT 11 straight (quite a few they shouldn't have [ie. last year]) and looks to keep it alive. UT was picked by some to make it to the playoff this year but has problems with focus. They (UT) will be without a couple of stand outs in the defense but get a much needed boost on the o-line. Florida lost their starting QB and will have to go with a transfer out of Purdue. Butch Jones needs this more than anyone. UT finally breaks through; 28-20

#18 LSU at Auburn: The hot-seat game. Which ever coach loses might not be coaching at the end of the year. Auburn has looked awful while playing multiple quarterbacks, LSU has a run game and needs a quarterback. Both defenses look good and usually that would mean to go with the home team. This time, however, I think Fournette runs through the Auburn defense to 150+ yards and Gus gets on the hot(ter) seat. LSU 30 - Auburn 14

Mississippi State travels to UMass :  Florida beat them 35-7; State will beat them by more; MSU 48 - 10

Delaware State at Missouri: Sleeper game; Mizzou 39 - 15

Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky: Vandy has to win this to even think about the post season; they won't. WKU 28 Vandy 13

South Carolina at Kentucky: A must win game for Kentucky (see Vanderbilt). Which SC team shows up? Who knows??  I think Kentucky is just that bad; SC 35 KY 31

Top 25

#3   Louisville at Marshall: 56-30 UL
#4   Michigan hosts Penn State: 42 - 24 UM
#5   Clemson at Georgia Tech: upset alert -- 28-27 Clemson
#6   Houston at Texas State: 44-20 UH
#7   Stanford at UCLA: 28-24 Stanford
#8   Michigan State hosts #11 Wisconsin: 29-14 Sparty
#9   Washington at Arizona: 28-25 UW
#13 Florida Sate at South Florida: upset alert -- 35-34 South Florida
#16 Baylor hosts Oklahoma State: upset alert -- 42-35 OK State
#20 Nebraska at Northwestern: 28-21 Neb
#24 Utah hosts USC: 30-20 Utes

Sunday, September 18, 2016

College Football Results

Rough week for me in the SEC, went 6-3 with losers on the Ole Miss-Bama game (great game), South Carolina pulling out a win over East and Vandy not showing up after the first quarter against Georgia Tech.

(ATS picks  SEC: 5-5 [based on my score pick versus the actual line] Top 25: 11-6-2)
From 19-6 to 25-9 in the SEC.

Much better in the Top 25 picks (some overlap as the SEC is well represent in the T25).

I picked the Louisville win over FSU, correctly thought that Texas and Notre Dame were both over rated based on their double overtime game against each other and had the Buckeyes beating up on Stoops and the Sooners.  Big miss on the Miami versus App State game, but who knew Miami would gel?

Overall in the Top 25 I was 16 and 3, so a very good week on the picks.

One note: Talking to Colbie Friday about the Iowa and North Dakota State game (ND is a FCS school that makes a habit of beating FBS teams); I had the game as Iowa winning 21-20 on a missed field goal at the end by the Bison. It went exactly as I called, except the kick was good (23-21 ND) so missed it by that much :)